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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still